Steelman
Cherry-picking
Also called suppressed evidence, stacking the deck, card stacking, incomplete evidence, quoting out of context.
Presenting only the evidence that supports your case and leaving out the rest.
What it is
Selecting the data, quotes or examples that support a conclusion while ignoring or concealing relevant evidence that points the other way.
The pattern
Evidence E1 supports X; E2 to E10 count against it. Present E1 only. Conclude X.
An example
A supplement company advertises the two small studies in which its product helped, and doesn’t mention the eight larger studies in which it did nothing.
Taken together, the evidence says the product probably doesn’t work. The ad only shows the outliers.
Why it fails
A conclusion has to fit all the relevant evidence, not a hand-picked slice. With enough data to choose from, you can “support” almost anything by showing only the favorable parts.
When it’s not a fallacy
Most lists skip this part. Calling a fair point a fallacy is a mistake too.
It can be fair when
- You choose a few examples to illustrate a point that the full evidence supports, and say so.
- You focus on the most relevant, highest-quality evidence and give a reason for leaving the rest out.
Try one
A question from the app. The wrong answers are its usual look-alikes.
Debate night. Maya: “That report looked at 15 states with red-flag laws. In 11 of them, gun suicides fell in the years after the law passed.” Tom: “Keep reading. In three of those states, gun suicides went up after the law passed. Doesn’t sound like a law that saves lives to me. Same report, real numbers.”
What’s the flaw?
The report covers 15 states, and suicides fell in 11. Tom holds up the 3 where they rose and drops the rest. All of his numbers are real; it’s the choice of which ones to show that does the work.
A fair reply
“Three states went up and eleven went down, so you have to look at all fifteen.”
Often confused with
- Anecdotal evidence
Anecdotal evidence substitutes a story for data. Cherry-picking selects convenient data from a larger set.
- Texas sharpshooter
The Texas sharpshooter finds a pattern in random data after the fact. Cherry-picking drops the data that don’t fit.
Where the name comes from
A cherry picker takes only the ripest fruit, so anyone who sees the basket alone thinks the whole tree looks that good. “Stacking the deck” and “card stacking” come from cards: secretly arranging the deck so the deal comes out your way. “Suppressed evidence” and “incomplete evidence” name what’s missing. “Quoting out of context” is the same trick with words: keep the line, drop what surrounds it.
Sources
- Fallacies, Bradley Dowden, Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
In the app
Practice spotting it on arguments that sound real.
Steelman has more examples of cherry-picking, how to answer it in a real conversation, and practice rounds that mix it with its look-alikes, so you learn the difference, not just the name. Coming soon to iPhone and Android.
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