Steelman
Reverse causation
Also called wrong direction, reversing cause and effect.
Getting cause and effect backwards.
What it is
Assuming that A causes B when it is at least as plausible that B causes A.
The pattern
A is associated with B. Therefore A causes B. (Actually, B causes A.)
An example
“Big fires always have lots of firefighters at them. So firefighters make fires bigger.”
Bigger fires cause more firefighters to be sent, not the other way round.
Why it fails
A correlation is symmetric: it doesn’t say which way the influence runs. Without evidence about direction, the causal arrow could point either way.
When it’s not a fallacy
Most lists skip this part. Calling a fair point a fallacy is a mistake too.
It can be fair when
- Timing or experiments establish which variable changes first and which responds.
Try one
A question from the app. The wrong answers are its usual look-alikes.
Parents’ group chat. Beth: “Kids who are already lonely or anxious often retreat into their phones.” Greg: “And in the school’s wellness survey, kids on social media five or more hours a day were about twice as likely to say they feel depressed. There’s the answer. The apps are doing this to them. I’m raising it at the PTA meeting Tuesday.”
What’s the flaw?
The survey shows heavy use and depression go together. Beth just pointed to the other direction: kids who are already struggling may spend more time on their phones, so the link alone can’t show the apps did it.
A fair reply
“Kids who are already down might be the ones scrolling five hours, so which comes first?”
Often confused with
- Correlation is not causation
Reverse causation is one specific way the correlation-to-causation leap goes wrong.
- Ignoring a common cause
With a common cause, neither variable causes the other. With reverse causation, one does, just not the one claimed.
Where the name comes from
Causation is one thing making another happen, and reverse means backward. The fallacy draws the arrow the wrong way: what looks like the cause is really the effect. “Wrong direction” and “reversing cause and effect” say the same thing in plain words.
Sources
- Fallacies, Bradley Dowden, Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
In the app
Practice spotting it on arguments that sound real.
Steelman has more examples of reverse causation, how to answer it in a real conversation, and practice rounds that mix it with its look-alikes, so you learn the difference, not just the name. Coming soon to iPhone and Android.
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